Bitcoin heads into the weekend of July 25, 2026 near $64,000, down about 1.3% over 24 hours, per Coin Gabbar's July 25 market wrap — and almost none of the selling had anything to do with crypto. In a single 48-hour stretch, Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since late May after Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, per CNBC; new U.S. tariffs of 10%–12.5% on 60 economies took effect at 12:01 a.m. Friday, per NPR; and the 10-year Treasury yield pushed to roughly 4.7%, its highest since January 2025, per The National.
The crypto-native casualty: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $225.1 million on Thursday, July 23 — ending the seven-session, $999.3 million inflow streak that had been the market's quiet bullish counterweight all week, per settled Farside Investors data. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $202.5 million of it — roughly 90% of the day's redemptions, per CryptoSlate.
The tape: $64K, fear at 27, and a market taking orders from oil
As of Saturday morning, BTC changes hands around $64,000–$64,600, with the total crypto market cap down 1.1% to about $2.28 trillion and Bitcoin dominance at 56.4%, per Coin Gabbar. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 27 — fear, one point below Friday's 28. Bitcoin briefly gave up $65,000 on Friday as U.S. stocks retreated, with Dogecoin and Ether leading the pullback, per CoinDesk's live coverage. For how we read the sentiment gauge, see our Fear & Greed field guide.
Oil at $100: the Red Sea joins Hormuz
Thursday's move in crude was the week's real headline. After Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers, Brent settled above $100 for the first time in nearly two months — then eased roughly 4% on Friday to settle near $97, per Bloomberg. The escalation matters because the Bab el-Mandeb strait carries an estimated 12%–15% of global maritime trade — and it is the main alternative route for Persian Gulf barrels avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, per Al Jazeera. Crude is now up roughly 35% in July and more than 60% year to date, per NBC News. Consultancy Rapidan lifted its fourth-quarter Brent estimate to nearly $100, and Goldman Sachs flagged $120+ as a risk case if disruptions persist. President Trump vowed to "punish" Iran over the attacks, per the South China Morning Post. Whether Bitcoin actually works as a hedge in moments like this is a question we tested with data in our geopolitical hedge guide.
Tariffs on 99.4% of U.S. imports
Stacked on top of the oil shock: the administration's Section 301 tariffs on 60 economies — 10% for partners that have adopted forced-labor import bans, 12.5% for those that haven't — took effect Friday, replacing the expiring 10% global baseline and covering 99.4% of American imports, per Bloomberg. Asian equities sold off in response, led by the Kospi and Nikkei, per CNBC's Daily Open. For Bitcoin, the transmission is indirect but real: tariffs plus $100 oil is a double inflation impulse landing four days before a Federal Reserve decision.
The Fed suddenly isn't boring: hike odds near 36%
That inflation impulse showed up immediately in rate markets. Futures now price only about a 64% probability the Fed holds at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, with roughly 36% odds of a quarter-point hike, per CoinGape's prediction-market tracker and CBS News — a dramatic repricing from the roughly 89% hold probability markets showed earlier in the week. The 10-year yield's jump toward 4.7% raised the opportunity cost of every non-yielding asset on the risk curve, Bitcoin included, per CryptoSlate. Our full scenario map for Wednesday — and how a tanker attack moved the Fed more than a month of CPI data — is in today's weekend analysis.
What we're watching
- Friday's (Jul 24) Farside cell when it settles — one outflow day is a data point; two is a trend. Our full flow post-mortem is in today's ETF update.
- Weekend Red Sea headlines — tanker transit data is now a macro indicator, and Monday's open will price whatever happens by then.
- FOMC decision Wednesday, July 29, 2:00 p.m. ET; Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m.
- June PCE lands Thursday, July 30 — the day after the decision.
- Support: the $61,500–$63,000 band defended three times this month. Resistance: $66,500–$68,000.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and you can lose some or all of your capital. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research and consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.